No fixed schedule
The evidence base of record. Documented findings, compiled without a schedule, that underpin the judgments made across our work.
14 JUL 2026
AST-LBN-FRAME-2026-07
The Trilateral Framework signed in Washington on 26 June 2026 hands Israel recognition on signing day and conditions any withdrawal on a disarmament the Lebanese state cannot compel. Within forty-eight hours the contest it opened had moved inside Lebanon. The most likely path over the next 60 to 90 days is a codified stalemate, no war and no peace, the occupation hardening behind it.
21 MAY 2026
AST-LBN-ECON-2026-05
The stabilization that has held the Lebanese economy together since 2024 is intact at the May 2026 inflection, but all three of its supports are under simultaneous strain. The pound has traded within half a percent of its fixed rate of 89,500 to the dollar throughout the war. The central bank’s foreign-currency reserves, counting both cash and foreign bond holdings, stood near 12.0 billion dollars before the war and 11.43 billion at the end of April 2026, a drawdown of...
13 MAY 2026
AST-COUNTRY-REORG-2026-05
The displacement system has stabilised at one million displaced and 127,000 in formal shelter, and that stability is durable under current conditions. Three independent data feeds converge within 2 percent on the in-shelter caseload as of 13 May 127,563, 125,621, 126,900 . The 88 percent gap between the in-shelter total and the national displaced count is the informal caseload, sitting in host families and rented rooms.
8 MAY 2026
AST-MAR-ESCALATION-2026-05
A cadastre-level damage assessment of South Lebanon following the March 2026 escalation. Satellite-anchored building counts, pre/post frame disclosure, and an operational read of where the destruction is concentrated and what it implies for return, reconstruction, and the political settlement that frames both.
1 APR 2026
AST-WAR-MONTH-2026-04
Integrated strategic assessment of four weeks of conflict across military, humanitarian, political-sectarian, and diplomatic dimensions. Cross-dimensional synthesis with trajectory mapping and observable indicators.